Predictive Gap Analysis of Financial and Operational Performance of Banks: A Comparative Study of Target versus Realization in Regional Development Banks (Case Study: Bank Sumut)
Keywords:
ROA; NPL; Third-Party Funds; Credit; Simple Variance AnalysisAbstract
This study aims to analyze the performance gap between the targets set in the Bank Business Plan (RBB) and the actual performance of the Regional Development Bank (BPD) Sumut during the 2020–2022 period, focusing on four key indicators: profitability (ROA), credit risk (NPL Nett), third-party funds (DPK), and credit distribution. The research employs a descriptive-comparative design with a quantitative approach using time-series data. The analytical technique applied is Simple Variance Analysis to measure the deviation between the target and actual realization of each indicator. Data were examined through both absolute and percentage gap ratios to evaluate the effectiveness of performance achievement and the consistency of the bank’s strategic execution. The findings reveal that Bank Sumut effectively managed profitability and credit risk, as evidenced by a significant increase in ROA and a decline in NPL below the target level in 2022. The intermediation function showed strong recovery, with credit realization exceeding the target; however, third-party fund mobilization still exhibited a negative gap despite improvement in the final year of observation. These results highlight the importance of strengthening DPK strategies through digital and CASA-based innovations, maintaining prudential principles in corporate lending, and diversifying non-credit income sources to ensure long-term stability and profitability. This study provides an empirical contribution to evaluating the effectiveness of the RBB using a ratio-based gap analysis approach, which remains rarely integrated into studies of Regional Development Banks in Indonesia.
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